Pollution's Worst Offenders: Nations Leading Environmental Damage

Several countries have contributed significantly to global pollution, with China, the United States, India, Russia, and Japan being the top five carbon dioxide emitters. China's extensive use of coal and imported oil places it as the largest emitter, while the US's gasoline-fueled transportation industry and India's reliance on coal contribute to their high emissions. The EU and US are also significant polluters due to their historical emissions and heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Bangladesh and India have highly polluted cities, with New Delhi and Dhaka having high PM2.5 concentrations, caused by traffic, construction, and industrial fumes.

China's emissions

China's per-capita emissions, however, are lower than those of the United States, and its citizens' carbon footprints are well above the global average. In 2020, Chinese leader Xi Jinping pledged to "peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030" and "achieve carbon neutrality before 2060". China's wind and solar power capacity have been growing at a rapid pace, and the country has made significant investments in renewable energy projects.

Despite these efforts, China's emissions rose by 3% in 2023 compared to 2022, reaching 14.9 GtCO₂e. This increase was driven by a rebound in economic activities and higher coal and oil consumption. While there are early indications that emissions may be starting to decline from this peak, China's continued reliance on fossil fuels poses a risk to meeting its carbon intensity target of an 18% reduction by 2025 from 2020 levels. China's energy consumption is projected to rise by almost 9% from 2024 to 2030, further challenging its ability to reduce emissions.

To strengthen its climate policy and meet its long-term carbon neutrality target, China needs to focus on controlling and reducing its dependence on fossil fuels. While its deployment of renewables is encouraging, it has not yet substantially reduced fossil fuel consumption or emissions. China's climate and energy policies are currently projected to be insufficient to drive down emissions significantly in the coming decade. Nevertheless, China's rapid economic growth and efforts to decarbonize present an opportunity to implement more ambitious decarbonization policies in the next five-year plan, which could have a substantial impact on global warming mitigation.

US historical emissions

The United States has emitted the most carbon dioxide of any country to date. As of 2023, the US is estimated to have emitted a cumulative total of 432 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) from fossil fuels and industry, accounting for roughly a quarter of historical global emissions since the Industrial Revolution. This makes the US the biggest carbon emitter of all time.

The US was still a young country when the Industrial Revolution began in Europe, and by 1800 it had emitted just 250,000 metric tons of CO2. However, once the Industrial Revolution reached the US, its economy shifted from agriculture to industry, and its emissions soared. By 1950, industrialization in the US had rapidly increased its contribution to global emissions. By 2017, the US had emitted around 400 billion tons of CO2 since 1751, making it responsible for 25% of historical emissions, twice that of China, the world's second-largest contributor.

The US's historical emissions are due in large part to its industrial revolution and heavy reliance on fossil fuels. The US has emitted more than twice as much CO2 as China, which is the world's biggest polluter in terms of overall emissions. However, when it comes to per capita emissions, the average American is responsible for nearly twice as much climate pollution as the average person in China.

The US has taken steps to address its emissions, such as the Inflation Act, which includes provisions for clean energy investments, tax credits for renewable projects, and initiatives to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. The EPA has also prepared an annual report on US greenhouse gas emissions and sinks since the early 1990s, tracking emissions by source, economic sector, and greenhouse gas.

India's rising emissions

India is one of the world's top polluters, with 2.3 billion tonnes of CO2 emitted. However, it is important to note that India's per capita emissions are significantly below the global average. This is because India is the world's most populous nation, with over 1.4 billion people.

India's emissions are rising steeply, driven by rapid economic growth and increased energy demand. India's GDP growth averaged 4.1% from 2019 to 2023, and in 2023, the country registered 6.7% GDP growth. This economic growth has been driven by continued investment in infrastructure, manufacturing capacity, and real estate. The share of investment in India's GDP growth increased from around 35% from 2015-19 to nearly 50% in the period 2019-23.

Despite India's efforts to reduce emissions, the country's emissions intensity target has been rated as "Insufficient" when compared to its fair-share contribution. India's climate targets and policies are not consistent with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature limit. India's fossil fuel demand remains unchanged, and the continued expansion of coal-fired power is not aligned with the agreement's goals. India will need international support to adopt stronger emissions reduction targets and accelerate climate policy implementation.

EU emissions

The European Union (EU) is one of the world's top polluters, responsible for a significant proportion of global emissions. The EU has implemented various measures and policies to address this issue, including the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the European Green Deal (EGD).

The EU ETS, established in 2005, is the world's first international emissions trading system. It operates on a "`cap and trade`" principle, where a limit is set on the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions allowed for installations and operators covered by the system. This cap is reduced annually to align with the EU's climate targets, ensuring a decrease in overall EU emissions over time. The system includes a robust set of oversight rules and requires companies to monitor, report, and surrender allowances for their annual emissions. The EU ETS has been successful in reducing emissions from European power and industry plants, with a 47% decrease compared to 2005 levels by 2023.

The EU has also introduced reforms to the EU ETS to address specific sectors, such as aviation, maritime transport, and buildings. These reforms aim to further reduce emissions and foster balance in the EU carbon market. Additionally, the EU has established the Social Climate Fund and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to support vulnerable groups and address carbon leakage concerns.

The European Green Deal, adopted in 2019, has been a significant initiative in the EU's efforts to reduce emissions. With the EGD, the EU is on track to achieve a 52% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, surpassing the initial projection of only a 33% reduction. Key accomplishments under the EGD include revisions to the Energy Performance in Buildings Directive, the Gas Regulation and Directive, and the Methane Regulation. These revisions establish more ambitious mandates for energy efficiency and signal a shift away from fossil fuels.

Despite this progress, the EU is not fully on track to meet its 2030 target of reducing emissions by at least 55% compared to 1990 levels. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates the EU's climate action and emission reduction target as "Insufficient". To enhance its efforts, the EU should focus on increasing financial support for international climate finance, discontinuing investment in fossil gas infrastructure, and establishing sector-specific targets.

Per capita emissions

When it comes to per capita emissions, or the climate pollution produced by the average person in each country, the picture is quite different from overall emissions. While China is the biggest emitter in terms of total emissions, the average American is responsible for nearly twice as much climate pollution as the average person in China. This is due to the combination of high emissions and a relatively small population in the US compared to China.

In fact, many of the major oil-producing countries, particularly those in the Middle East, have some of the highest per capita emissions. This includes countries like Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait. These countries often have relatively low populations, so their total annual emissions are low despite high per capita emissions.

On the other hand, densely populated countries like India have per capita emissions that are significantly below the global average. This is because countries with large populations and lower per capita emissions tend to have a smaller impact per person. For example, while China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia have made large contributions to global cumulative emissions, they also have big populations, so their impact per person is much smaller.

It's worth noting that per capita rankings depend strongly on the methodology used and do not relate directly to warming in the same way that cumulative emissions do. Small countries with high per capita emissions may still have a relatively minor impact on warming overall. Additionally, measures of territorial-based emissions do not account for emissions embedded in global trade, as they only report emissions within geographical boundaries.

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