Pollution's Global Reach: How Countries Affect Each Other

Global pollution is a pressing issue that poses serious health and environmental risks to people and ecosystems worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Air pollution, caused by a combination of factors including rapid economic growth, population increases, and insufficient environmental management, has emerged as a significant contributor to mortality and morbidity, with outdoor and indoor air pollution leading to respiratory and other diseases. The impact of pollution is not limited to a single country's borders, as almost all nations contribute to rising global pollution levels. The consequences of pollution are evident in the top five most polluting countries, which include India and China, where carbon dioxide emissions and the burning of fossil fuels have severe environmental and health implications.

The US's position as the largest cumulative CO2 emitter

The US is the largest cumulative emitter of CO2, responsible for 20.3% of global emissions since 1850. This is associated with around 0.2C of warming to date. The US's historical emissions are largely due to its development, which was driven by the widespread use of coal, followed by the advent of the motor car.

The US's position as the largest cumulative emitter is significant, as it highlights the country's substantial contribution to global warming and climate change. The US has emitted more than 509 GtCO2 since 1850, which is the highest share among all countries. This high level of emissions has had a detrimental impact on the environment and contributed to the warming of the planet.

While the US has taken steps to reduce its emissions in recent years, it continues to be a major emitter. In 2022, US greenhouse gas emissions increased by 0.2% compared to 2021 levels. This rise in emissions was driven largely by an increase in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion due to the economic rebound after the COVID-19 pandemic.

The US's position as the largest cumulative emitter of CO2 has important implications for global efforts to combat climate change. As one of the most developed and industrialized countries, the US has a responsibility to lead in reducing emissions and mitigating the impacts of climate change. However, the country's historical emissions and current emission levels present a significant challenge in achieving these goals.

It is worth noting that the concept of national responsibility for historical emissions is complex. The changing territorial ownership and political boundaries of countries over time can complicate the attribution of emissions to specific nations. Additionally, factors such as population size, wealth, and carbon intensity can also influence a country's emissions and vary between nations.

China's extensive use of coal

The use of coal in China dates back thousands of years, with historians suspecting that ancient Chinese people were involved in surface mining as early as 3490 BC. In the pre-modern era, coal was used for heating and household purposes, with early descriptions of coal use in the 6th century noting its impact on the taste of food. By the 11th century, coal was the main fuel source in the capital, Kaifeng, and it had replaced charcoal in the region. The increasing demand for coal led to the development of mining in areas such as Henan and Shandong.

In traditional China, coal demand came primarily from industry, particularly ironworking and smelting. Chinese scientist Song Yingxing estimated that around 70% of iron was smelted with coal, while 30% used charcoal. The main coal-producing provinces in China today include Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi, with most coal found in the north and northwest of the country.

Despite pledges to reduce coal use and transition to clean energy, China has continued to build new coal-fired power plants. In 2024, China began constructing 94.5 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-power capacity, the highest level of construction in the past 10 years. This resurgence in coal-power expansion poses a challenge to China's climate commitments and raises concerns about its ability to transition away from fossil fuels.

China's coal use has had a significant impact on its own environment and air quality, with Beijing experiencing constant red alerts for environmental pollution in recent years. Additionally, China's emissions contribute to the global warming and climate change affecting all countries. While China has led important initiatives to combat climate change, the effectiveness of these initiatives has been questioned, and the country continues to face the challenge of balancing economic growth with environmental protection.

The EU's carbon leakage concerns

The risk of carbon leakage is higher in certain energy-intensive industries, such as steel and cement manufacturing, which face intense global competition. If these industries relocate to regions with lower labour and energy costs, it could lead to a rise in global emissions and undo the progress made by the EU ETS. To address these concerns, the European Union introduced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2023. The CBAM imposes carbon pricing on imports to ensure that imported goods are subject to similar carbon costs as those produced within the EU. This mechanism aims to prevent unfair competition for domestic industries and incentize global partners to align with the EU's climate goals.

The effectiveness of the CBAM is yet to be fully evaluated, but initial estimates suggest that it could reduce carbon leakage by 19%. Additionally, the EU has implemented policies to support the competitiveness of industries covered by the EU ETS. Industrial installations at significant risk of carbon leakage receive special treatment, such as a higher share of free allowances, to safeguard their competitiveness. These policies will continue in the 2021-2030 phase of the EU ETS but will be based on more stringent criteria and improved data.

Brazil and Indonesia's deforestation

The actions of polluting countries do have an effect on other countries. The emissions of greenhouse gases of human origin are the main cause of climate change, and their effects on global warming are devastating. Brazil and Indonesia, two of the most rainforest-covered countries in the world, have historically high rates of deforestation and are among the top ten largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.

In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, deforestation in these countries was driven by settlers growing cash crops. However, from around 1950 onwards, deforestation intensified due to cattle ranching, logging, and the establishment of palm oil plantations. Between 2001 and 2014, Indonesia and Brazil accounted for nearly half of all tropical tree cover loss. While Brazil has made significant progress in reducing deforestation in the Amazon since 2004, with a major decline attributed to better environmental governance and law enforcement, both countries experienced an uptick in tree cover loss in 2014.

Brazil's rate of tree cover loss increased by more than 16% between 2013 and 2014, while Indonesia's rose by 30% during the same period. The increase in Brazil has been attributed to the policies of President Jair Bolsonaro, who has actively supported mining and ranching while dismantling environmental protections. The discourse and actions of Bolsonaro and his Minister of Environment, Ricardo Salles, have sent a clear message that there will be no consequences for violating environmental laws.

Indonesia has also struggled with reducing deforestation due to complex regulatory systems and a lack of priority given to forest management by the government. While Indonesia has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and Brazil has committed to achieving zero illegal deforestation by 2030, both countries continue to face challenges in meeting these targets.

The efforts of Brazil and Indonesia to reduce deforestation are crucial, as tackling global climate change requires a concerted effort to slow deforestation in these regions. The high rates of deforestation in these countries not only contribute to their own greenhouse gas emissions but also have an impact on the global climate, affecting other countries as well.

India's burning of fossil fuels

Greenhouse gas emissions of human origin are the primary driver of climate change, and the urgency to reduce these emissions is becoming increasingly critical. While almost all countries contribute to global pollution, India is one of the top polluting countries, with fourteen of the world's 15 most contaminated cities, according to the World Health Organization. India's rapid economic growth and development have resulted in a significant increase in energy consumption, with fossil fuels accounting for 88% of primary energy consumption in 2022. This includes the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas, which has grown significantly in recent years.

India's struggle to curb fossil fuel usage is partly due to its commitment to providing modern energy services to millions of households, many of which currently lack access to electricity. The country has experienced a rapid growth trajectory similar to that of the United States and Western Europe in the mid-20th century, with a corresponding surge in energy demand. While India has made efforts to transition to renewable energy sources, the demand for energy services has been so vast that both fossil fuels and renewables are being used complementarily.

India's solar generation capacity has grown by 25% annually, and wind energy by 5%, while coal consumption has risen by only 1%. Despite this progress, fossil fuels still dominate the country's energy mix, with coal, oil, and natural gas imports increasing. India's net coal imports, for example, rose significantly between 2011-12 and 2020-21. This continued reliance on fossil fuels has been attributed to their cost, reliability, and perceived domestic availability.

However, arguments in favor of coal and fossil fuel usage in India are being challenged. Firstly, the levelized cost of electricity from renewable sources like solar, hydro, and wind has been declining sharply and is already less expensive than fossil fuel-based electricity generation. Secondly, technological advancements have addressed the variability of renewable sources, improving their reliability. Finally, the notion that coal is easily available domestically in India is a myth, as evidenced by the country's increasing coal imports.

Frequently asked questions