China's Pollution Crisis: Who's To Blame?

Air pollution in China is a pressing issue that has severe consequences for both the environment and public health. China's rapid industrialization, population growth, and energy consumption have contributed to high levels of air pollution, particularly in major cities. The pollution has been linked to approximately 1.24 million deaths in 2017 alone, with a staggering 30 million deaths attributed to air pollution since 2000. While China has implemented policies and taken steps to combat air pollution, the problem persists, and the country continues to face challenges in reducing emissions and improving air quality.

The Chinese government's lack of transparency and censorship

China's air pollution problem has been well-documented, with the country experiencing an unprecedented environmental health crisis. While the Chinese government has implemented various policies to combat air pollution, there have been criticisms of a lack of transparency and censorship surrounding the issue.

The Chinese government has demonstrated a commitment to improving air quality, particularly through the anti-pollution campaign launched in 2013, which focused on controlling PM2.5, the most harmful type of particulate matter. This campaign led to a significant drop in PM2.5 concentrations, and China has continued to make progress in reducing pollution during the Covid era.

However, there have been concerns about the government's lack of transparency and censorship of environmental issues. While the government has acknowledged the problem and taken some steps to address it, there is still a perception of a lack of openness. For example, in 2015, the viral documentary "Under the Dome" by Chinese journalist Chai Jing brought attention to the country's pollution crisis. Initially praised by authorities, the documentary was later taken offline, demonstrating the government's control over information related to the environment.

Censorship of online communities and media has been a common tactic used by the Chinese government to control the narrative around air pollution. Chinese citizens have had to resort to coded language and virtual private networks (VPNs) to express their concerns and organize protests without triggering government censors. This lack of transparency has made it challenging for citizens to hold the government accountable and effectively address the pollution problem.

Additionally, there have been discrepancies in the government's reporting of pollution data. In 2017, the government acknowledged that its coal emissions were 17% greater than previously disclosed, indicating a willingness to improve transparency. However, this revision also highlights the potential underreporting or manipulation of data, which can impact the effectiveness of pollution control policies and the public's understanding of the issue.

Overall, while China has made strides in combating air pollution, the government's lack of transparency and censorship practices have been a source of concern for citizens and observers. Improving environmental transparency and allowing for more open discussion and criticism are crucial steps in addressing the country's air pollution crisis and holding the government accountable for its environmental commitments.

Industrial emissions and coal power plants

China's coal-fired power system has seen a significant increase in carbon emissions over the past two decades. Between 2000 and 2020, the total carbon emissions from these power plants rose from 78.55 Mt to 2438.58 Mt, indicating a rapid expansion. The International Energy Agency predicted a 60% reduction in carbon emissions from the power industry between 2020 and 2030, largely due to the decline in conventional coal-fired power generation.

China has approximately 4200+ coal plants, and the government has implemented strict policies to control emissions from these plants. The COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 provided evidence of the impact of coal-fired power plants on air quality, as the suspension of industrial operations and transportation resulted in improved air quality.

The Chinese government has taken steps to address coal-fired power plant emissions, including retiring older, less efficient coal plants and replacing them with ultra-supercritical facilities designed to produce more energy with less coal. They have also set goals for lowering PM2.5 levels and reducing coal consumption under the Airborne Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan.

The decline in global pollution levels can be attributed to China's success in reducing pollution, particularly in steeply reducing PM2.5 pollution. This reduction has led to a significant improvement in air quality, with blue skies returning to many Chinese cities. China now boasts the fastest air quality improvement worldwide, and if these reductions are sustained, they could increase average life expectancy in the country.

Vehicle emissions

China has been the largest vehicle market in the world since 2009, with the total number of vehicles in the country reaching 360 million in 2020. Vehicle emissions have become a significant source of air pollution in Chinese cities, particularly in larger cities where the concentration of exhaust from vehicles is much higher. According to China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment, vehicle emissions were responsible for about 45% of Beijing's air pollution in 2018 and nearly 30% of Shanghai's.

However, there is hope that the rise of electric mobility might help limit the environmental impact of China's growing vehicle fleet. New ventures that exclusively produce electric fleets make up about 30% of the total capitalization of the automotive industry in China. The China Academy of Transportation Science (CATS) projects that the share of electric vehicles (EVs) will increase from less than 2% in 2020 to over 80% by 2050. While this is good news, it is important to note that even with an 80% EV market share and a full energy transition to renewable sources by 2050, soaring motorization rates would still cause China's transport emissions to be much too high.

To achieve net zero by 2060, China needs to move beyond electrification and tackle car dependency directly. For example, if China's motorization rate were to plateau at 350 vehicles per 1,000 people, transport sector emissions in 2050 would be less than 15% of the current level. This would make achieving net zero by 2060 much more feasible.

Household solid fuel usage

The combustion of solid fuels produces substantial pollution, particularly when burned in simple stoves. This type of indoor air pollution (IAP) has severe health implications, including respiratory illnesses, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, weakening of the immune system, reduction in lung function, and depression. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), solid fuel usage in Chinese households causes approximately 420,000 premature deaths annually, with some studies placing this figure at 363,000 deaths per year.

The use of solid fuels in rural households is one of the major emission sources of air pollutants in China, especially for incomplete combustion products such as carbon monoxide, primary PM2.5, black carbon, and organic carbon. The decrease in PM2.5 exposure and associated premature mortality in China from 2005 to 2015 was largely due to changes in household energy sources brought about by urbanization and economic growth. Northern China, in particular, has the highest regional levels of air pollution in the country due to intensive industrialization, dense population, and long heating periods.

The Chinese government has implemented policies to address household solid fuel usage and the resulting air pollution. The 2013 Airborne Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan recognized coal as a key driver of air pollution and set caps on its consumption. The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan framework included sub-plans aimed at lowering PM2.5 levels and reducing coal's share of total energy consumption. The government is also retiring older, less efficient coal plants and replacing them with ultra-supercritical facilities designed to produce more energy with less coal.

While these interventions have had some success, solid fuel usage in households remains a significant contributor to China's air pollution problem, with economic costs as high as 6.6% of the country's GDP. Continued efforts to reduce solid fuel usage and improve indoor air quality are crucial to protecting public health and the environment in China.

Population growth

However, it is important to note that the relationship between population density and air pollution is nuanced. While some studies have suggested that higher population density can reduce air pollution through the increased use of clean energy and public transportation, other factors come into play as well. For instance, a higher population density can also lead to increased energy demands, which, if met through fossil fuel combustion, can contribute to air pollution.

Furthermore, population growth can indirectly impact air pollution through economic growth and development. As the population grows, there is often a corresponding increase in economic activity, industrialization, and energy consumption, which can lead to higher emissions and pollution levels. This is particularly evident in rapidly industrializing regions. China's rapid economic growth in the last two decades, driven in part by its growing population, has resulted in a significant rise in atmospheric pollution, affecting both the environment and public health.

The impact of population growth on air pollution is also influenced by urbanization trends. As more people migrate from rural to urban areas, the concentration of people in cities can lead to higher levels of pollution. This phenomenon, known as the "mortality penalty," has been observed in China, where the death rate in urban areas with higher population densities is higher than in less populated rural areas.

To mitigate the effects of population growth on air pollution, various measures can be implemented. These include improving energy efficiency, transitioning to cleaner energy sources, developing public transportation networks, and implementing policies to control and reduce air pollutant emissions. China has already taken steps in this direction, such as launching anti-pollution campaigns, setting goals for lowering PM2.5 levels, and replacing older coal plants with more efficient facilities.

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