Greta Jimenez
China and the United States are the world's two largest economies and polluters, with China currently producing more than twice the carbon dioxide emissions of the United States. China's emissions have been the world's largest since the mid-2000s, and the country is responsible for about one-third of global CO2 emissions, while the US contributes 13%. While China has invested nearly half of the global total in low-carbon energy transition, the US has invested $141 billion, and under the Inflation Reduction Act, the US is set to invest $370 billion over ten years in non-fossil fuel power. China's classification as a developing country has allowed it to avoid bearing the costs of climate change, but with its rapid industrialization, it may soon surpass the US as history's biggest carbon dioxide emitter.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| US historical contribution to carbon emissions | 509 billion tons of emissions |
| China's historical contribution to carbon emissions | 284 billion tons of emissions |
| US per capita carbon emissions | 17.6 tons |
| China per capita carbon emissions | 10.1 tons |
| China's annual carbon emissions | 12.7 billion tons |
| US annual carbon emissions | 5.9 billion tons |
| China's annual per capita emissions compared to Europe | Higher since 2013 |
| US total emissions through 2021 | Higher than China's |
| China's classification by the UN | Developing country |
| US investment in low-carbon energy transition | $141 billion |
| China's investment in low-carbon energy transition | $546 billion |
| US investment in non-fossil fuel power | $370 billion over 10 years |
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What You'll Learn
China's classification as a developing country
China has been classified as a developing country by the United Nations. This classification has allowed China to avoid calls to bear the costs of climate change alongside wealthy nations. China's late start on the road to development has contributed to this classification.
In the early 1990s, about 65% of China's population lived on less than $2.15 per day. By 2017, this figure had dropped to 0.1%, with around 900 million people lifted out of poverty. Despite this progress, China's development challenges persist, particularly in transitioning to environmentally sustainable growth and reducing inequality in lagging regions.
While some observers note that China's large cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, appear to be just as developed as other First World countries, China's rural areas and smaller cities lag behind in infrastructure and living standards. Additionally, China's energy consumption patterns differ from those of the United States, with a higher proportion of energy used for industries such as steel, cement, and petrochemicals, and lower carbon emissions from transportation.
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China's energy sources
However, China's energy sources are changing, with a growing proportion of its energy coming from renewable and low-carbon sources. Hydroelectricity is China's largest renewable energy source, with hydropower accounting for approximately 15-16% of the country's installed power capacity and electricity generation in 2021 and 2022. China represented about 29% of the world's total hydropower capacity and contributed more than half of the global increase in hydropower capacity additions in 2021.
Wind and solar power are also becoming increasingly important in China's energy mix. In 2023, China's total installed electric generation capacity included 376 GW from wind power and 425 GW from solar power. The share of wind and solar combined reached 18% in 2024, above the global average of 15%. China is also set to lead global growth in biofuel production, with the rollout of ethanol blending in a growing number of provinces.
While China's energy sources are transitioning towards renewables, the country still faces challenges in reducing its coal consumption and emissions. China's coal demand and production capacity remain high, and coal-fired power is often favoured over renewable power due to government rules and dispatch orders. China is the world's largest electricity producer and consumer, and its growing energy needs will need to be balanced with its goals of achieving peak coal consumption by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
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US plastic waste exports
China and the United States are the two largest emitters of carbon dioxide in the world. China has been the world's largest annual emitter of carbon dioxide since 2006. However, the United States has emitted more carbon dioxide to date than any other country, and its per capita emissions are still significantly higher than China's. The US has also transitioned to a less energy-intensive service economy, while China is still heavily reliant on energy-intensive industries, with almost 70% of its energy consumption in the industrial sector compared to 20% in the US.
In terms of plastic waste exports, the US has been directing a large amount of its waste to countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand since China implemented tighter regulations on the import of foreign plastic in 2019. This policy change resulted in a 92% drop in US plastic waste exports to China. However, the new recipient countries have also become overwhelmed by the large influx of plastic waste from developed countries.
The US exported around million pounds of scrap plastic in 2023, a decrease of % compared to the previous year. While there is a growing focus on reducing plastic consumption and increasing recycling efforts, plastic pollution remains one of the biggest environmental crises, with the concentration of microplastics in oceans threatening biodiversity and the health of marine life and humans.
To address the issue of US plastic waste exports and its environmental impact, a range of solutions are being explored. These include policy interventions, such as extended producer responsibility (EPR) programs and plastic waste import bans implemented by some countries, as well as corporate initiatives, such as Starbucks' pledge to eliminate plastic straws and Evian's commitment to using 100% recycled material for their bottles.
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China's illegal timber imports
China and the United States are the world's top carbon emitters. China has been the world's largest annual carbon dioxide emitter since 2006, with almost 90% of its energy derived from fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas, and oil. China's per capita emissions have surpassed Europe's every year since 2013 and are projected to continue doing so for decades. China's economic growth may be incompatible with limiting emissions, a concern for American diplomats.
The United States, on the other hand, has transitioned from an energy-intensive manufacturing to a less energy-intensive service economy. It has also taken steps to reduce carbon emissions, such as reducing permits for new coal plants after 2007. However, the US coal industry and electric utilities have resisted efforts to reduce coal consumption.
While it is challenging to predict when the United States will surpass China in pollution, it is clear that both countries must take significant action to reduce their carbon emissions and address climate change.
Now, moving on to the topic of China's illegal timber imports, China has been at the center of the global illegal timber trade, according to NGOs and the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA). China's vast wood-processing industry relies heavily on imports for its raw material supply, with more than half sourced from countries with a high risk of illegal logging and poor forest governance. China's demand for timber is driving a growing illegal trade that is stripping forests in Africa and Asia and fuelling conflict. The trade is worth about $4 billion annually, and China's newly wealthy are contributing to it by purchasing luxury antique-style furniture made from illegally sourced timber.
China's government has acknowledged the problem and taken initial steps toward a solution, but it has not yet enacted a binding prohibition on illegal timber imports. To address this issue effectively, China must implement enforceable due diligence requirements on importing companies and work with the international community to protect forests.
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US climate change legislation
Climate change legislation in the United States has evolved over time, with varying levels of success and impact. Here is an overview of some key moments in US climate change legislation:
1992: Senate Approves U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change
In 1992, the United States took a significant step towards addressing climate change by approving the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This global agreement committed all signatory nations to take action and laid the groundwork for future agreements.
2008-2010: Cap-and-Trade Legislation and the American Clean Energy and Security Act
During this period, the House of Representatives passed the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, which aimed to establish a nationwide greenhouse gas cap-and-trade system. This act, along with other proposed legislation, reflected President Barack Obama's priority to address climate change through comprehensive energy bills.
2012: National Flood Insurance Program Extension Act
Congress passed this act, which was a major step toward addressing the risks of increased flooding due to sea-level rise and extreme weather events. While not explicitly mentioning "climate," the bill directed the use of scientific projections of future changes in sea levels and precipitation to inform flood mapping and insurance premiums.
2020: American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act
This act directed the EPA to address hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases used as replacements for ozone-depleting substances. The EPA was tasked with phasing down HFC production and consumption.
2022: Inflation Reduction Act
The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Biden in 2022, is considered the most significant US climate change legislation to date. It invests approximately $400 billion in climate-related projects, primarily through tax credits. The act focuses on increasing renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, and also allocates funds for building retrofits, clean transportation, environmental justice, and sustainable agriculture.
2025: EPA Actions and Shifts in Climate Policy
By 2025, the EPA had implemented CO2 emission standards for commercial aviation and large business jets, consistent with international standards. Additionally, the EPA continued to address methane emissions in the oil and natural gas industry. However, with the start of President Donald Trump's second term, there was a shift in climate policy. Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Accords and froze the adoption of pending federal rules related to climate change.
While there have been setbacks and challenges, US climate change legislation has also seen important milestones and increasing recognition of the need for action.
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Frequently asked questions
No, the United States will not surpass China in pollution. China has been the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide since 2006, and in 2021, it was responsible for over half of the world's development of new coal power. China's emissions are about double those of the US.
The United States has committed to reducing its carbon emissions. Under the Obama administration, the US agreed to cut emissions by at least 26% below 2005 levels by 2025. This target was increased by President Biden, who promised to slash emissions by 50-52% by the end of the decade. The US has also invested in renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and green hydrogen.
China has also taken steps to reduce its carbon emissions. In 2022, China spent $546 billion on its "low-carbon energy transition," which includes investments in renewable energy, energy storage, electrified transport, and carbon capture. China has also tightened laws to ban Chinese companies from trading in illegally sourced timber.
