Brian Barton
There is conflicting evidence regarding whether world pollution is decreasing. While global pollution has declined since 2013, this is due almost entirely to China's success in reducing pollution. In 2025, China's emissions declined for the first time, despite a rapid increase in the demand for power across its economy. This is largely due to China's investment in renewable energy infrastructure, such as solar and wind power. However, South Asian countries like India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have seen their pollution increase by almost 10% from 2013 to 2021, with 19 out of the top 20 most polluted cities in the world located in Asia.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Global average exposure to particulate air pollution | Decreasing |
| Number of people living in extreme poverty | Decreased from 2 billion in 1990 to under 700 million in 2025 |
| China's emissions | Decreasing |
| India's air quality | Improved |
| Top 3 most polluted countries | Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India |
| Top 3 least polluted countries | The Bahamas, New Zealand, Australia |
| China's actions | Installed more than half of the solar and wind generation capacity installed globally in the past few years |
| China's ability to deploy renewable energy technologies | Decisive impact on levelling off its carbon emissions |
| Cap-and-trade market in India | Reduced air particulates by almost a third |
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What You'll Learn
China's emissions are decreasing
China is the world's largest annual greenhouse gas emitter, accounting for 27% of global greenhouse gas emissions as of 2020. The country's emissions have generally been on a downward trajectory in recent years, with notable fluctuations. For instance, during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019-2020, a slowdown in various economic sectors, including manufacturing, construction, and transportation, led to a significant reduction in China's greenhouse gas emissions by about 25%. However, China's emissions rebounded and reached a record high of nearly 12 billion metric tons from April 2020 to March 2021.
China has demonstrated a commitment to addressing its emissions and pollution levels through various measures. One notable example is the country's efforts to decarbonize its transport system. China has invested significantly in renewable energy infrastructure, particularly solar and wind power installations. The share of internal combustion engines in the railway system decreased from 51% in 2012 to 36% in 2021, while the electrification rate of its railways increased from 52% in 2012 to 73% in 2021. China's vast high-speed rail network offers a low-carbon alternative to air and road travel, with significantly lower CO2 emissions.
China is also the world's largest renewable energy producer and consumer. The country has set ambitious targets to constrain coal consumption and increase the use of non-fossil fuel energy carriers. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of China pledged to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and committed to having non-fossil fuel energy carriers account for 20% of the total primary energy supply. China's power sector is projected to hit its carbon emission peak around 2029, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council.
In 2024, China recorded a 3% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions compared to the previous year, suggesting that emissions might peak sooner than the 2030 target. This reduction was attributed to an expansion in wind and solar power capacities, coupled with a downturn in the property sector, resulting in lower emissions from industries like steel and cement manufacturing. However, challenges remain, including the technical difficulties of integrating solar energy into the existing power grid and a continued dependence on coal.
China's efforts to combat pollution and reduce emissions are evident through its aggressive policy interventions, investments in renewable energy, and implementation of waste separation policies. These initiatives have led to measurable improvements in air quality in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. China's progress in decreasing emissions is a positive step towards mitigating climate change and improving public health outcomes.
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Air pollution in India is improving
While India is one of the most polluted countries in the world, there are some signs of improvement. In 2019, India had 21 of the 30 most polluted cities in the world, and 13 of the world's 20 cities with the highest annual levels of air pollution. However, by 2024, India had dropped to fifth place for air pollution levels among countries, with its average PM2.5 concentration decreasing to 50.6 µg/m³ from 54.4 µg/m³ in 2023. This is still well above the WHO's annual PM2.5 guideline of 5 µg/m³.
India's rapid economic expansion, fueled predominantly by coal-powered industries, has been a major contributor to its poor air quality. Other factors include industrial and vehicular emissions, construction dust and debris, dependence on thermal power for electricity, waste burning, and the burning of wood and dung by low-income and rural households for cooking and heating. Despite these challenges, India has taken steps to address its air pollution problem. The Indian government launched the National Clean Air Program to reduce particulate matter pollution by 30% by 2024, later revising the target to 40% by 2026. India's Central Pollution Control Board now routinely monitors four air pollutants: sulphur dioxide (SO2), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), suspended particulate matter (SPM), and respirable particulate matter (PM10).
The private sector also has a crucial role in combating air pollution. The Confederation of India Industry developed a Corporate Air Emissions Reporting Guide to help businesses manage and report their emissions. Additionally, India's CEO Forum for Clean Air has over 130 members working to galvanize the private sector to find solutions to poor air quality.
While India still has a long way to go in improving its air quality, these efforts represent a positive step towards reducing pollution and mitigating its impacts on public health and the economy.
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Global air pollution is falling
In recent decades, death rates from air pollution have decreased. Since 1990, death rates have halved, with the decline primarily driven by improvements in indoor air pollution. Outdoor air pollution has seen more modest improvements. However, global average exposure to particulate air pollution has fallen over the last decade, even as the world's population has grown by over 750 million people. This challenges the idea that reducing the global population is the solution to reducing pollution.
In China, national PM2.5 concentrations have decreased from 32.5 to 31 micrograms per cubic meter, with major metropolitan areas like Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen recording measurable air quality improvements. These positive developments reflect China's aggressive policy interventions and investments in renewable energy infrastructure.
Nepal has also made significant progress, with its death rate falling almost 20-fold due to measures such as improved access to healthcare, antibiotics, and nutrition. However, air pollution has not improved everywhere. South Asian countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India continue to dominate the list of the world's most polluted countries, facing severe air quality issues driven by rapid economic expansion, urbanisation, industrial activity, and climate factors.
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Water pollution and degradation
Water degradation has worsened across the globe since the 1990s and is expected to escalate further, posing increased threats to human health and the environment. Climate change is one of the key drivers of the loss and degradation of freshwater ecosystems. As global temperatures rise, the atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to increased storms and heavy rains, as well as more frequent and severe droughts. This results in disrupted precipitation patterns and a greater frequency of floods and droughts, which in turn exacerbate many forms of water pollution, from sediments to pathogens and pesticides.
Agricultural activities are a significant contributor to water pollution and degradation. Globally, agriculture is the leading cause of water degradation, with farming and livestock production accounting for about 70% of freshwater consumption. Every time it rains, fertilizers, pesticides, and animal waste from farms wash nutrients and pathogens, such as bacteria and viruses, into waterways. Nutrient pollution, caused by excess nitrogen and phosphorus, is the top threat to water quality and can lead to harmful algal blooms.
Water-related disasters, such as floods and droughts, have dominated the list of natural disasters over the past 50 years, accounting for 70% of all deaths related to natural disasters. Since 2000, flood-related disasters have increased by 134%, with most flood-related deaths and economic losses recorded in Asia. The number and duration of droughts have also risen by 29% during this period, with most drought-related deaths occurring in Africa.
Climate change is exacerbating water scarcity and water-related hazards. Over two billion people worldwide lack access to safe drinking water, and approximately half of the global population experiences severe water scarcity at some point during the year. However, healthy aquatic ecosystems and improved water management can help mitigate these issues and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Wetlands, such as mangroves and marshes, act as effective carbon sinks and provide protection against extreme weather events by absorbing excess water and precipitation.
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Climate change and environmental damage
One of the key indicators of climate change is the rise in global temperatures. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), global temperatures have increased by about 2°F (1.1°C) from 1850 to 2023. This warming trend is projected to continue, with the average global temperature expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C in the next few decades. The Arctic is particularly vulnerable to warming, experiencing rates at least twice the global average, which contributes significantly to sea level rise.
Sea level rise is another significant consequence of climate change. Since 1880, global sea levels have risen by approximately 8-9 inches (21-24 centimeters), and this rate has accelerated in recent years. The primary drivers of sea level rise are the melting of land ice sheets and glaciers, as well as the thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. This poses threats to coastal areas, increasing their vulnerability to erosion and storm surges.
Climate change also exacerbates the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including droughts, wildfires, and heavy rainfall. These events have far-reaching impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, infrastructure, and human health. Droughts can reduce food production and access to clean water, while flooding can lead to the spread of diseases and damage ecosystems and infrastructure. Additionally, climate change affects water supplies by altering the timing of peak flows in rivers and streams, intensifying competition for this precious resource.
Air pollution remains a significant environmental health risk, contributing to one in nine deaths annually, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is of particular concern, as it is linked to various health conditions, including heart disease, asthma, cancer, and developmental issues in children. South Asian countries, including India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, consistently rank among the most polluted, posing serious public health challenges for their populations. However, it is important to note that global average exposure to particulate air pollution has decreased over the last decade, even as the world's population has grown.
Addressing climate change and environmental damage requires a multifaceted approach. Experts emphasize the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming and mitigate the worst effects of climate change. This involves transitioning to a clean energy economy, investing in new technologies, and incorporating climate change considerations into urban planning. Additionally, building climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable health systems is crucial to protecting human health and ensuring universal health coverage.
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Frequently asked questions
Global pollution has been declining since 2013, largely due to China's success in reducing pollution. China's emissions declined in the 12 months up to May 2025, despite a growing economy and energy demand. This is a significant shift, as China is responsible for around 30% of global emissions.
South Asian countries, including India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan, have seen a near 10% increase in pollution since 2013. In 2024, 19 of the top 20 most polluted cities globally were in Asia, with 13 of them in India. However, India saw a slight improvement in air quality in 2024, dropping from 3rd to 5th place in the rankings. Nordic countries, such as Finland, Sweden, and Iceland, are among the least polluted.
Urbanization, industrial activity, and climate factors are significant contributors to worsening pollution in South Asia. India's rapid economic expansion, fueled by coal-powered industries and traffic congestion in megacities, has led to severe air pollution. Additionally, recent findings highlight social and environmental damage caused by the rush for transition minerals and the expansion of renewable energy industries.
Particulate pollution (PM2.5) is linked to respiratory diseases, cardiovascular complications, cancer, and developmental issues in children. It is considered the world's greatest external risk to human health, reducing global average life expectancy by 1.9 years.
