Meghan Hodges
Aviation is one of the most carbon-intensive activities, contributing 2-3% of global carbon emissions. In 2019, global aviation emitted around 1 billion tons of CO2, with emissions more than doubling between 1990 and 2019. The sector is expected to fully recover from the Covid-19 pandemic shock by 2024, and if left unmitigated, aviation emissions could double by 2050. The growth in air travel and freight will significantly impact global warming, with the aviation industry's contribution to climate change extending beyond CO2 emissions.
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What You'll Learn
Aviation's contribution to climate change
Aviation is a significant contributor to climate change. While it only accounts for about 2.5% of global CO2 emissions, its overall contribution to climate change is higher. This is because, in addition to emitting CO2 from burning fuel, planes also affect the concentration of other atmospheric gases and pollutants.
The growth in air travel has led to an increase in aviation emissions. Between 1990 and 2019, both passenger and freight demand quadrupled, and emissions doubled from 0.5 billion tonnes to 1 billion tonnes. Aviation emissions have been growing faster than any other mode of transport and are expected to continue rising. If left unmitigated, aviation emissions could more than double by 2050.
The impact of aviation on climate change is influenced by passenger demand and emissions per passenger-kilometre. Improvements in energy efficiency and fuel efficiency have helped to dampen the increase in emissions. For example, between 1970 and 2019 in the United States, advances in engine and design technology, improvements in air traffic operations, denser seat configurations, and higher passenger loads reduced the energy intensity of air travel by 77%. However, these improvements have not kept up with the rapid increase in total passenger numbers, which are projected to double in the next 20 years.
To reduce aviation's contribution to climate change, the industry will need to transition from jet fuel to electrification, biofuels, hydrogen, or a combination of these alternatives. Additionally, reducing corporate and leisure travel can help lower aviation emissions.
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The challenge of reducing aviation emissions
Aviation is one of the toughest sectors to decarbonize. In 1990, global aviation emitted around 0.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2). By 2019, this figure had doubled to 1 billion tonnes, accounting for 2.5% of CO2 emissions from fossil sources and land use. While aviation accounts for a relatively small share of global CO2 emissions, its overall contribution to climate change is higher. This is due to the release of other greenhouse gases and pollutants, such as nitrous oxides, ozone, and water vapour, which have a warming effect on the atmosphere.
The growth in air travel has accelerated since the 2008 global financial crisis, with annual global growth rates averaging 6% from 2010 to 2019. The highest growth occurred in the Asia-Pacific region, which includes China and India, with rates reaching 10.7% in 2017. The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) reported that global CO2 emissions from commercial aviation reached 920 million tons in 2019, a 30% increase in six years.
Reducing corporate travel is one way to cut aviation emissions in the short term. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the reduction in business travel demonstrated that flying for work is no longer necessary in many cases. By reducing corporate travel to 50% of pre-COVID levels, Europe could reduce CO2 emissions by 32.6 MtCO2 by 2030, equivalent to taking 16 million polluting cars off the road.
Another challenge in reducing aviation emissions is the lack of measures to address non-CO2 climate impacts. Aircraft contribute to global warming through the release of nitrogen oxides (NOx), vapour trails, and cloud formation at high altitudes. These non-CO2 effects are estimated to contribute twice as much to global warming as aircraft CO2 emissions. Solutions exist to tackle this problem, such as using clean fuels and reducing the aromatics and naphthalene content of jet fuel to lower the formation of soot and persistent contrails.
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The aviation industry's emission mitigation efforts
The aviation industry is responsible for around 2% to 3% of global carbon emissions, or 2.5% to 2.8% of CO2 emissions from fossil sources and land use. While flying is one of the most carbon-intensive activities, relatively few people fly, so the overall contribution is small. However, as incomes rise, demand for air travel will increase, and aviation's contribution to global emissions will grow.
The aviation industry has made efforts to mitigate its emissions and reduce its contribution to climate change. These include:
- Improvements in technology, such as more efficient aircraft engines, which have helped to reduce the energy intensity of air travel.
- Sustainable aviation fuel, such as biofuels, which can be produced from a wide variety of sources, including non-food biomass like algae, jatropha, halophytes, and switch grass. Biofuels can reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions and soot content, water vapour, and sulfates in exhaust, leading to less contrail formation.
- Aircraft design changes, such as denser seat configurations and higher passenger loads, have also contributed to reduced emissions.
- The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has played a role in limiting emissions from international civil aviation by adopting technical standards and a market-based mechanism. However, the ICAO has been criticised for ignoring the non-CO2 impacts of aviation and failing to reach a consensus on global standards for aircraft engine emissions.
While these efforts have helped to slow the growth of emissions, they have not been sufficient to completely eliminate or reduce the industry's overall emissions. The aviation industry will need to move away from jet fuel and towards electrification, biofuels, hydrogen, or a combination of these alternatives to achieve net-zero emissions.
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The impact of COVID-19 on aviation emissions
Aviation is a significant contributor to global carbon emissions. In 2019, global CO2 emissions from aviation were 920 million tons, a 30% increase over six years. While aviation accounted for 2.4% of total CO2 emissions in 2018, its impact on climate change is greater when non-CO2 effects, such as warming induced by aircraft contrails, are considered.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the aviation industry, with a dramatic decline in the number of passengers and flights in 2020. This reduction in air travel had a corresponding effect on aviation emissions. Several studies and models have been conducted to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on aviation emissions, particularly in specific regions such as South Korea.
One study utilized the Aviation Integrated Model (AIM2015), a global aviation systems model, to project how the pandemic may affect long-term demand, fleet, and emissions projections. The results suggested that cumulative aviation fuel use up to 2050 could be up to 9% below the scenarios without the pandemic, mainly due to reductions in relative global income levels. Additionally, the pandemic accelerated the phasing out of very large and/or quad-engine aircraft, contributing to lower emissions.
Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a temporary reduction in aviation emissions due to the decrease in air travel. However, the long-term impact on emissions reduction is uncertain. While some studies project a potential decrease in cumulative aviation fuel use, the aviation industry's recovery and ongoing demand may influence emissions-related policies and targets.
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Policy approaches to reducing aviation emissions
Aviation is a major contributor to global carbon emissions, with around 1 billion tons emitted in 2019, and studies estimate that just 10% of the world's population flies in most years. This figure is expected to increase as incomes rise. While aviation accounts for around 2.5% of global CO2 emissions, its overall contribution to climate change is higher when considering the release of other greenhouse gases and water vapour at high altitudes.
Regulatory and Policy Changes:
Climate scholars advocate for structural changes, arguing that aviation emissions reflect regulatory and business failures to address the climate crisis adequately. Policy initiatives can include implementing carbon pricing mechanisms, such as the EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS), which puts a cap on emissions and allows trading of emission permits. The EU ETS helped reduce the carbon footprint of other sectors by 160 million tons during 2013-2020. Additionally, policies can encourage the development and use of sustainable, lower-carbon alternative fuels, such as biofuels, electrification, hydrogen, or a combination of these.
International Cooperation:
International cooperation is essential due to the global nature of aviation. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) plays a crucial role in setting standards and working with governments to address aviation emissions. As of 2019, 81 nations have signalled their intent to participate in the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), a voluntary phase aimed at reducing emissions growth.
Technological Innovations:
Technological advancements can improve flight efficiency and reduce delays, thereby lowering emissions. This includes optimising flight paths and improving aircraft engine efficiency. The EU, for example, promotes innovation through its updated Innovation Fund, supporting projects that aim to minimise non-CO2 effects of aviation and enhance the understanding of aerosol and NOx emissions.
Individual Action and Social Movements:
While individual actions alone may not significantly reduce emissions, they can collectively influence policy changes. Individuals can reduce their carbon footprint by making informed consumer choices, such as reducing air travel or choosing more sustainable travel options when possible. Additionally, individuals can act as influencers, voters, and social movement participants to pressure governments and businesses to develop and implement low-emission air travel policies.
Addressing Climate Inequity:
Aviation emissions highlight climate inequity, as the majority of carbon aviation emissions are attributed to a small percentage of frequent fliers. Policies can address this inequity by incentivising or regulating more sustainable travel options for those who can afford it, thereby reducing the carbon intensity of high-income lifestyles.
By implementing these policy approaches and continuing to innovate, the aviation industry can play its part in mitigating climate change and reducing its environmental impact.
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Frequently asked questions
Aviation emitted around 0.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide in 1990. By 2013, global CO2 from commercial aviation was 707 million tons. In 2019, aviation emitted around 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide, with some sources stating 1.04 billion tons.
Aviation pollution has increased significantly over the years. Between 1990 and 2019, carbon dioxide emissions from aviation more than doubled. From 2013 to 2018, emissions from planes rose by 32%.
Aviation is responsible for around 2-3% of global carbon emissions. While this may seem low, it is one of the largest contributors to an individual's carbon footprint, as most people do not fly.
