Transportation's Dark Cloud Over China's Skies

China's rapid economic growth has lifted millions out of poverty, but it has also resulted in severe environmental degradation. China's past economic growth has been largely dependent on fossil fuels, which has caused serious air pollution issues. By 2020, there were 360 million vehicles in China, making transportation a major contributor to air pollution. China has made efforts to combat air pollution, such as fitting scrubbers to coal power plants and tightening rules governing vehicle exhausts, but it remains a significant issue, affecting both the health and quality of life of its citizens.

Fossil fuels and economic growth

China's rapid economic growth has lifted millions of people out of poverty, but it has also resulted in immense environmental degradation. Fossil fuels have been pivotal to this economic advancement, serving as the foundation for societal and economic progress. China's economy is based on fossil fuels (hydrocarbons), which generate 86% of its primary energy consumption. China consumed nearly 4.2 billion tons of coal and about 15.44 billion barrels of crude oil per day in 2021, making it the world's leading carbon dioxide emitter.

China's heavy reliance on fossil fuels is seen as a threat to both its ecosystems and global resources. The combustion of fossil fuels has resulted in high levels of air pollution, with fine particles in the air penetrating deep into the lungs and cardiovascular system of people, causing diseases including stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, and respiratory infections. Air pollution is responsible for about 2 million deaths in China annually.

While China has committed to peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and increasing the share of non-fossil fuels to 20% of total consumption, it is simultaneously expanding its capacity to generate coal-powered electricity. In 2020, China added 11.4 gigawatts of new coal-fired capacity, and its state-owned utilities plan to expand their coal-fired fleets by about 10% by 2025. This expansion of coal-fired power plants is expected to operate for 40 to 60 years, indicating a long-term commitment to fossil fuel usage.

Additionally, China is investing heavily in the oil-refining industry and is set to surpass the United States as the world leader in petroleum refining. China's strategy of decarbonizing through the Paris Accord strengthens its economy by reducing the cost of fossil fuels it purchases and weakening its rivals. This complex interplay between economic growth, energy consumption, and environmental degradation presents a significant challenge for China in balancing economic development and ecological preservation.

Industrial output and urbanisation

China's rapid economic growth has been largely driven by its industrial output, which has resulted in immense environmental degradation. The combustion of fossil fuels, particularly coal, has contributed to a global increase in carbon dioxide emissions. In 1990, 76.2% of all energy consumed in China was generated by coal, and although this has decreased over time, it still accounted for 57.7% of energy consumption in 2019. The large coal-powered industries are key drivers of China's economic development but have also become a significant contributor to air pollution. By 2017, the steel industry had become China's biggest polluter.

China's growth has also been accompanied by urbanisation, with rural populations moving to cities, and the primary industry transforming into secondary and tertiary industries. This process has resulted in increased consumption of resources, causing environmental pollution problems. Urbanisation has brought about issues such as traffic congestion, energy shortages, and air pollution. The expansion of the population and vehicle ownership has led to increased traffic volume and congestion, resulting in serious urban air pollution.

Empirical studies have shown that urban growth patterns exert a significant influence on air quality. Larger city sizes result in the occupation of more open space, leading to a worsening of air quality. Densely populated cities also experience higher demand for heating supply, leading to additional coal consumption and affecting local air quality.

While urbanisation can increase pollution, it also has the potential to improve energy efficiency and reduce pollution emissions. Foreign investment and trade can introduce high technology, reducing resource consumption and pollutant emissions. However, it can also lead to the transfer of energy-intensive industries to developing countries, increasing environmental pollution.

China's industrial output and urbanisation have contributed significantly to air pollution, with the former providing the energy needed for economic growth, and the latter increasing the consumption of resources and causing environmental issues.

Vehicle emissions

China's rapid economic growth has lifted millions of people out of poverty, but it has also resulted in immense environmental degradation. The country's past economic growth has substantially relied on fossil fuels, which has caused serious air pollution issues. While electricity generation has historically been the main source of China's air pollution, large coal-powered industries and the use of coal by households have also contributed significantly.

The total number of vehicles in China reached 360 million in 2020, making them a major contributor to air pollution. Vehicle emissions are a key concern, and China has tightened rules governing vehicle exhausts, leading to a 75% drop in sulphate emissions. However, the increasing trend of other pollutants, such as ozone (O3), remains a challenge. Prior to the pandemic, there was a significant increase in O3 concentration in China, contributing to 90.1% of the rise in ozone-related mortality from 2013 to 2019. The average ozone concentration in monitored cities continued to rise in 2022, and the absence of a multi-pollutant emission reduction strategy further complicates the issue.

China has demonstrated strong autonomy in policymaking and has successfully transmitted pressures to lower levels of the hierarchy to combat air pollution. In 2013, an anti-pollution campaign focused on controlling PM2.5, deemed the most harmful particulate matter, and resulted in a 50% drop in average PM2.5 concentration from 2013 to 2019. China has also committed to peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and increasing the share of non-fossil fuels to 20% of total consumption within the same timeframe. Additionally, China pledged to spend RMB2.5 trillion ($367 billion) on renewable power generation through 2020, although investments in clean energy fell by 8% in 2019.

While China's efforts to reduce air pollution have shown progress, it is premature to celebrate the end of its war against pollution. The trade-offs between environmental protection and economic growth present a challenge, as economic development often depends on industrial output, urbanization, and motorization, all of which contribute to pollution. China's success in reducing pollution has inadvertently contributed to a surge in global warming, as the removal of aerosols has unmasked the full effect of greenhouse gas-driven warming.

Coal-powered industries

China's economic growth has been largely dependent on fossil fuels, which has resulted in severe air pollution. Coal-fired power plants have been a major contributor to air pollution in China. The early COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 provided evidence that coal-fired power plants significantly impact air quality. During the lockdown, most cities in China implemented strict measures, including suspending industrial operations and transportation. This led to a decrease in air pollution levels, indicating the significant contribution of coal-fired power plants to the issue.

According to a study, the reduction in the operation of coal-fired power plants during the lockdown resulted in a decrease in various air pollutants: AQI by up to 2.884 units, NO2 by 1.543 μg/m3, PM10 by 3.727 μg/m3, and PM2.5 by 2.220 μg/m3. These findings highlight the significant influence of coal-fired power plants on air pollution, although the impact may vary across cities depending on economic levels, electricity usage, and population size.

In addition to coal-fired power plants, the combustion of coal and biomass fuels in households contributes significantly to indoor air pollution in China. Nearly all rural residents and a significant number of urban residents use solid fuels, including coal, for cooking and heating. This has led to approximately 420,000 premature deaths annually in China due to indoor air pollution, with health effects including respiratory illnesses, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Furthermore, certain regions of China have reported cases of arsenic poisoning and fluorosis resulting from the use of "poisonous" coal. While intervention technologies, such as adding chimneys or implementing modernized bioenergy programs, can help mitigate indoor air pollution, coordinated support from the government and commercial sectors is necessary for their success.

China has taken steps to address the issue of coal-fired power plants contributing to air pollution. For example, in 2014 and 2015, subsidies for coal-fired generation were reduced, and plants emitting less than 50% of national and local limits received cuts in their air pollution emission fees. However, more technological upgrades and emission control strategies are essential to further improve air quality and reduce the health and economic impacts of air pollution in China.

Household coal usage

China's past economic growth has been largely dependent on fossil fuels, resulting in severe air pollution. Industry, transportation, coal power plants, and household solid fuel usage are significant contributors to air pollution in China.

The combustion of biomass and coal, referred to as "solid fuels," is the primary source of indoor air pollution in China. Solid fuels are used for cooking and heating, particularly in rural areas. In 2003, biomass accounted for about 80% of the energy consumed by rural households, with coal making up almost 10%. Even in urban areas, many communities continue to rely on coal despite plans to phase it out.

The use of solid fuels has severe health impacts. Arsenic poisoning and fluorosis have been observed in certain regions due to the use of "poisonous" coal. Measured pollution levels in households using solid fuels often exceed China's indoor air quality standards. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that solid fuels used in Chinese households cause about 420,000 premature deaths annually, with various health effects including respiratory illnesses, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, a weakened immune system, and reduced lung function.

To address this issue, China has implemented initiatives to transition from coal to alternative energy sources for heating, such as natural gas. The Clean Heating Plan for Northern China in Winter for 2017–2021 aimed to substitute electricity or pipeline-based natural gas (PNG) for heating in the northern region. However, the continued use of natural gas in rural areas is dependent on the maintenance of government subsidies. Additionally, intervention technologies, such as adding chimneys or implementing modernized bioenergy programs, can help mitigate indoor air pollution from coal usage.

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