Germany's Co2 Pollution: Unexpected Increase?

Germany's greenhouse gas emissions have been on a constant climb until they peaked in 1979 at 1,390 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents. Since then, emissions have been gradually declining, and Germany has cut its emissions considerably in recent decades. However, Germany is still one of the biggest CO2 emitters in history, with heavy industry, the building sector, and transport being the largest emitters. Germany has set out plans to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2030, and its greenhouse gas emissions fell to 673 million tonnes of CO2 in 2023.

Coal-fired power plants

Germany's coal power plants have been a significant contributor to the country's CO2 emissions and air pollution levels. In 2022, the 'intensive use' of these coal-fired power plants resulted in an additional 15.8 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, according to a report by Energy Brainpool. This increase was attributed to Germany's response to the energy crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where decommissioned coal power plants were temporarily reopened to avoid gas shortages.

Germany's decision to phase out nuclear energy has also led to a heavier reliance on coal, particularly lignite, which is the cheapest source of electricity from fossil fuels. Lignite combustion produces the highest CO2 emissions per ton, significantly more than hard coal and natural gas. This shift towards lignite has caused Germany's CO2 emissions to rise, despite the overall share of coal in electricity production decreasing over the years.

The country's coal fleet has severe health implications, causing over 4,000 premature deaths in 2013. Scientific studies have modelled the contribution of coal-fired power plants to air pollutant concentrations and their impact on population exposure. The results indicate that abandoning coal-fired power plants would significantly reduce the burden of disease in Germany, particularly for diseases of the cardiovascular system.

To address these concerns, Germany introduced the Climate Action Program 2020, aiming to reduce emissions by 70 million tons annually by 2020. One measure proposed was a "climate fee" for coal-fired power plants, which would increase costs for operators and make lignite less profitable. However, this initiative faced backlash from coal miner unions and utility companies. Germany has also invested in renewable energy sources like solar and wind power, but the transition away from coal remains challenging due to economic factors and the country's position as Europe's largest economy, heavily dependent on cheap electricity for industrial goods.

Upgrading coal power plants to meet new air pollution regulations comes with significant costs, estimated at €0.7-1.2 billion for Germany. However, the most economically efficient way to reduce air pollution, improve public health, and achieve emission reduction goals may be to rapidly close coal plants and replace them with renewable and cleaner technology.

Gas imports

Germany has been actively working towards reducing its CO2 emissions. In fact, Germany is one of almost 30 countries that have enshrined the goal of climate neutrality by or before 2050 in its national law. The country has also set a 2060 target for net-negative emissions.

However, Germany is still one of the biggest CO2 emitters in history. Since the Industrial Revolution, Germany has released over 90 gigatonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere from fossil fuel combustion. Only the United States, China, and Russia have emitted more.

Germany's emissions have been declining since 1990, the international reference year. The fall of the Berlin Wall and the reunification of Germany led to a decline in East German industrial and power sectors, resulting in automatic CO2 reductions. The global economic crisis in 2009 also contributed to a 6.9% drop in emissions compared to the previous year. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused further significant emission reductions.

When it comes to gas imports and their impact on CO2 emissions, it's important to consider both production-based and consumption-based emissions. Production-based emissions refer to CO2 emitted within a country's borders, while consumption-based emissions take into account the CO2 emitted in the production of imported goods. Germany's participation in international trade has contributed to carbon reduction in developing countries, particularly China and Russia, due to its lower carbon intensity.

The energy sector is the largest contributor to CO2 emissions in Germany, with the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas for power generation being the primary source. Coal-fired power plants are among the biggest carbon polluters in the country, and Germany aims to phase them out by 2030. Heavy industry and the building sector are also significant emitters, contributing 23% and 15.2% of total emissions, respectively.

While Germany has made progress in reducing its CO2 emissions, the impact of gas imports on its overall emissions footprint is complex and depends on various factors, including the structure of the economy and the energy system, and the efficiency of energy use.

Industrial processes

Germany has long been associated with high levels of CO2 emissions, largely due to its early industrialisation and intense coal use. In fact, Germany is the sixth-largest historical emitter of CO2. However, Germany's total CO2 emissions have decreased by 15.7% from 2000 to 2018, and the country is actively reducing its carbon emissions.

Germany's first national climate law, passed in 2019, contains annual emission budgets for individual sectors such as industry and transport until 2030. These budgets are set in line with wider European greenhouse gas emission reduction plans. Germany's climate targets are informed by the European Union's greenhouse gas emission reduction policies and legislation.

Heavy industry is responsible for 23% of emissions, making it the second-largest emitter in Germany. However, emissions in the sector have fallen by 44% since 1990, mainly due to increased efficiency in production processes. The rising cost of carbon allowances since 2019 has also encouraged energy efficiency and reduced CO2 output.

Germany's CO2 emissions fell to their lowest level in 70 years in 2023. This reduction is partly due to a sharp decline in coal use, as well as a drop in production in energy-intensive industries. Germany's total emissions in 2023 were 598 million metric tons, a decrease of 11% compared to the previous year.

Germany's participation in international trade has also contributed to carbon reduction in developing countries, particularly China and Russia. However, some argue that developed countries, including Germany, transfer high-polluting industries to developing countries due to lower production costs and less stringent environmental regulations.

Agriculture

Germany's agricultural sector is a significant contributor to the country's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, although the contribution is relatively small compared to other sectors such as energy and industry. In 2023, emissions from agriculture amounted to about 61 million tonnes of CO2, which was below the sector's climate target of 67 million tonnes. This decrease in emissions can be attributed to several factors, including a decline in pig and cattle stocks and reduced nitrogen fertilisation.

One of the main sources of agricultural emissions is methane from animal husbandry, which includes methane emissions from livestock such as cattle and dairy cows. In 2016, methane emissions from farmed animals accounted for 37.5% of agricultural emissions, or 24.5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents. While other livestock like swine and poultry emit less methane directly, they still contribute to emissions through land use for feeding, barn emissions, and manure management. Additionally, the continuous increase in milk yield from dairy cows has led to a rise in overall emissions, despite a decrease in the number of cows.

Another significant source of emissions in the agricultural sector is nitrous oxide from agricultural soils. The use of synthetic fertilisers, particularly on arable soils, contributes to around 40% of nitrous oxide emissions, or 26 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents per year. Nitrous oxide is approximately 300 times more harmful to the climate than CO2. To address this issue, experts suggest growing more leguminous plants, such as beans and lupines, which can reduce the need for synthetic fertilisers and preserve forests.

Germany has taken steps towards curbing emissions from the agricultural sector. For instance, the government halted any further increase in power generation from biogas in 2016 due to concerns over land consumption for non-edible crops. Additionally, meat consumption in Germany is declining, providing an opportunity to reduce livestock numbers and associated emissions. However, there is still a significant gap between current emissions and the sector's 2030 climate targets, highlighting the need for additional climate protection measures.

Population size

Germany is the most populous country in the EU, with around 83 million people as of 2022. Annual emissions can be influenced by population size, and Germany's CO2 emissions per capita are among the highest in Europe, almost twice those of France. In 2022, CO2 emissions per capita in Germany were equivalent to 8.01 tons per person, a decrease from 8.12 tons per person in 2021. This represents a change of -1.3% in CO2 emissions per capita.

Germany's climate targets are informed by the European Union's greenhouse gas emission reduction policies and legislation. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) covers almost 40% of the bloc's total emissions, including those from power generation and energy-intensive industries. Germany's national climate law defines net greenhouse gas neutrality as the "balance between anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases from sources and the removal of such gases by sinks." The country has set a target of achieving net-negative emissions in the land use and forestry sector by 2030, with further targets of minus 35 million tonnes and minus 40 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents by 2040 and 2045, respectively.

Germany has been a leader in climate change politics, with national and global climate policies becoming a top priority for the government since 2005. The German government has introduced initiatives to increase the use of renewables, such as wind power, biomass, hydropower, geothermal power, and photovoltaics, thereby reducing GHG emissions causing air pollution and combating climate change. Feed-in tariffs for electricity have been implemented to encourage the adoption of new energy technologies, and the country has transitioned to renewable energy sources, with a renewable energy use rate of 34% in 2016, up from 6.3% in 2000.

Germany's vulnerability to the physical effects of climate change is relatively low compared to other countries, and risk perceptions among the population are high. The German public has largely supported the government's initiatives, and climate action is not considered an economic burden. Germany's status as an early industrialised country and its intense coal use have contributed to its high historical emissions, and coal-fired power plants remain a significant source of carbon pollution. Germany has set plans to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2030, and the rising price of carbon allowances has helped improve energy efficiency and reduce CO2 output.

Frequently asked questions