China's Green Revolution: Can It Overcome Pollution?

China's cities are shrouded in smog, its water is polluted, and its economy is hugely reliant on coal. But can the world's biggest carbon emitter go green?

China is the top greenhouse gas polluter on the planet and the world's top coal consumer and producer. Its cities are cloaked in smog, and its water is polluted. However, China is also the world's largest installer of renewable energy technology, and it leads the planet in the construction of supercritical power stations, which produce far less smog than traditional coal-fired power plants.

Despite its significant environmental challenges, China has made notable progress in recent years. It has invested significant sums in efforts to reduce air pollution, with the amount of harmful particulates in the air falling by 40% from 2013 to 2020. China is also the world's largest producer of electric cars.

While China's environmental reforms are impressive, the country's leadership has been criticised for not moving quickly enough and for prioritising economic growth over ecological concerns.

China's transition to renewable energy sources

China's renewable energy sector has experienced rapid growth, outpacing the rest of the world in recent decades. The country has invested heavily in renewable technologies, such as solar, wind, and hydropower, and has become the world's largest producer and exporter of clean energy technology. This has driven down costs and made renewable energy more accessible globally.

By 2021, China's total renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000 GW, accounting for 43.5% of its total power generation capacity. This includes substantial contributions from hydropower, solar, and wind power. China aims to further increase its renewable capacity, targeting 1,200 GW of solar and wind energy by 2030 and 80% of its total energy mix from non-fossil fuel sources by 2060.

While China still generates a significant portion of its electricity from fossil fuels, the power sector is decarbonizing quickly. The country is replacing coal with domestically sourced renewable energy, and its coal reserves are expected to run low in a few decades, making the shift to green energy imperative. China's energy use is projected to peak by 2030 and reduce by 20% by 2050, driven by electrification, energy efficiency improvements, and demographic shifts.

China's transition to renewable energy is motivated by a desire to reduce carbon emissions and address the negative environmental and diplomatic impacts of being the world's biggest polluter. Additionally, renewable energy sources provide energy security, as they are not subject to the same geopolitical tensions and finite supplies as fossil fuels.

However, challenges remain. China's giant grid favors high-speed transmission from reliable sources like coal-fired power plants, and anxieties about energy security have led to a recent surge in permits for new coal-fired power plants. China must address these issues and continue its rapid buildup of renewables to stay on track with its climate and energy goals.

The impact of pollution on public health

China's rapid economic growth has come at a cost to the environment and public health. Air pollution in China is responsible for about 2 million deaths per year, with ambient air pollution causing more than 1 million of those deaths. Industry, transportation, coal power plants, and household solid fuel usage are major contributors to air pollution.

Air pollution is known to increase health risks, with studies confirming the adverse effects on cardiovascular, respiratory, pulmonary, and other health-related outcomes. The World Health Organization (WHO) defines health as a state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being, and not merely the absence of disease.

In China, air pollution has been linked to an increased risk of stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, and respiratory infections. The impact of air pollution on public health in China is complex and varies across regions. A study by Zhao et al. (2022) found significant regional differences in the impact of environmental pollution and economic growth on public health. The study divided China into four regions: the eastern region, the northeastern region, the central region, and the western region. The results showed that the degree of harm caused by sulfur dioxide emissions on mortality was highest in northeastern China, followed by eastern China, western China, and central China.

The study also found that the health status of China's four regions was affected not only by economic growth and environmental pollution but also by per capita disposable income and the urbanization rate. Additionally, environmental pollution was found to harm children's health and significantly increase perinatal mortality, while economic growth helped reduce perinatal mortality.

China has taken some steps to address air pollution and its impact on public health. The "Healthy China 2030 Plan" emphasizes improved management of health-related environmental problems. However, the country still faces challenges in balancing economic growth and environmental protection.

The role of the Chinese government in tackling environmental issues

The Chinese government has played a significant role in tackling the country's environmental issues, particularly in recent years. In 2014, the government amended its environmental law to better combat pollution, and since the 2010s, it has paid greater attention to environmental protection through various policy actions, including signing the Paris climate accord, committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions China has also become a leader in renewable energy, with massive investments in solar, wind, and hydroelectric energy, as well as electric vehicles.

The Chinese government has implemented several measures to curb pollution and improve the country's environmental situation, including:

• Signing the Paris climate accord, committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
• The 13th Five-Year Plan, which outlines various environmental protection goals
• The 2015 Environmental Protection Law reform, strengthening enforcement powers and emphasizing the government's responsibility
• The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Law established in 2015
• The Belt and Road Initiative International Green Development Coalition, a joint project with environmental agencies from 25 other countries

While China still faces significant environmental challenges, the government's efforts have yielded some positive results. For example, sulphur dioxide levels in China were reduced by 70% from 2006 to 2017, and air pollution decreased from 2013 to 2018. Additionally, China's urban areas became significantly healthier and more sustainable in the early 2020s compared to a decade earlier.

However, China's rapid economic expansion and relaxed environmental oversight have also contributed to its environmental problems. The country's economic growth has been largely reliant on coal, the dirtiest form of energy, and it has been criticized for not moving quickly enough to address these issues. Nevertheless, the Chinese government has made notable efforts to tackle environmental issues, and its success will have a significant impact on global efforts to combat climate change.

International cooperation and China's contribution to global climate efforts

China's rapid economic growth and heavy reliance on coal have made it the world's largest source of global warming gases. However, China is also a leader in the green transition and biodiversity protection and has the potential to play a central role in global climate action.

China has already made significant strides towards reducing its environmental impact. For instance, China's fully protected areas now span approximately 1.73 million square kilometers, or 18% of the nation's landmass, and this is set to increase. In addition, over 50% of China's total energy generation capacity comes from non-fossil fuel sources, and the country leads the planet in the installation of renewable energy technology. China has also made efforts to modernise heavy industry, moving it out of major cities, and has shut down many of its smallest and filthiest coal-fired power plants.

China has also contributed to global climate efforts through international cooperation. In 2023, China and the US released a joint statement, the 'Sunnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis', in which they reaffirmed their commitment to work together and with other countries to address the climate crisis. The statement outlined several areas of cooperation, including energy transition, methane reduction, and the promotion of multilateralism. China has also provided financial support to developing countries through South-South cooperation, with researchers estimating that from 2013 to 2022, China provided and mobilised $45 billion to support efforts to curb emissions and adapt to climate change in developing nations.

China's next generation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in 2025 is expected to pursue enhanced commitments, pointing the way toward more ambitious targets and accelerated actions globally. China can also consider integrating biodiversity considerations into its NDCs, as nature and climate are intrinsically linked. As China continues to accelerate its green transformation, it will be important to ensure that pathways to a low-carbon future are inclusive, with expanded social protection mechanisms and programs to retrain workers for green jobs.

The economic and social costs of pollution in China

China's economic growth has had severe ramifications for the natural environment. The country's rapid economic development has led to a dramatic increase in the demand for natural resources, including water, land, and energy. This has resulted in deforestation, desertification, flooding, and species loss. In addition, poorly regulated industrial and household emissions and waste have caused levels of water and air pollution to skyrocket, with China becoming one of the world's leading contributors to global environmental problems such as acid rain, ozone depletion, and climate change.

The social and economic costs of this environmental pollution are substantial. Public health problems, mass migration, forced resettlement, and social unrest are all consequences of ineffective environmental considerations in development efforts. According to the World Bank, the total cost to the Chinese economy of environmental degradation and resource scarcity is estimated to be 8%-12% of GDP annually. Here is a breakdown of some of the key economic and social costs:

• Economic Productivity Loss: The greatest economic cost is in health and productivity losses associated with urban air pollution, estimated at over $20 billion by the World Bank. Water scarcity in Chinese cities results in about $14 billion in lost industrial output, while in rural areas, water scarcity and pollution contribute to a crop loss of approximately $24 billion annually.
• Public Health Crises: Environmental pollution has led to a range of public health issues, including an increased incidence of birth defects, cancer, kidney and bone disorders, respiratory and pulmonary diseases, and other serious illnesses. The World Bank estimates that 7% of all deaths in urban areas, approximately 178,000 people, could be avoided if China met its own air pollution standards.
• Migration and Resettlement: Environmental degradation and large-scale public works projects have led to the displacement of 20-30 million peasants during the 1990s, with an additional 30-40 million expected to need relocation by 2025. This migration places significant stress on cities, and if not managed properly, could trigger larger-scale conflict in urban areas.
• Social Unrest: Environmental pollution and the failure to address it effectively have contributed to social instability and unrest. Incidents of violent protest have occurred due to water scarcity and contaminated water sources, and disputes over forests, grasslands, and mineral resources.

China has recognized the challenge of environmental protection and is taking steps to address it, but the country still faces significant economic and social costs due to pollution and environmental degradation.

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